The Boston Globe's Chad Finn attempts to predict the starting line-up for the 2010 Boston Red Sox ... in November.
It's actually quite an interesting read especially since Mr. Finn can't seem to let go of the idea that Boston should acquire San Diego Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (an idea he's held onto for the past three seasons).
Anyway, I'll post his predictions (link here for the entire article). In about three or four months, we can all see how close (or not) he came to actually getting it right.
LINEUP
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF. There certainly is every expectation that he'll be back for his third full season at age 26 . . . but parting with him in a deal for Gonzalez and signing Mike Cameron for a year or two wouldn't be the craziest idea ever floated, would it?
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B. I suspect his performance last year (.296/.371/.447) will represent his typical season, and given all that he provides, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. It's OK to admit the MVP award was a bit serendipitous.
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. I've explained my feelings on this before, and nothing has changed: It is going to take a bounty of riches to get Gonzalez from the Padres, in part because he is a wonderful, underpaid player in the heart of his prime, and in part because new Padres GM Jed Hoyer probably has as much familiarity with the Red Sox farm system as anyone not named Theo Epstein. But I'll shout it again: He is worth it. Give them Clay Buchholz, Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, and another SoxProspects.com favorite or two, and do not look back.
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B. Defensively, he's an excellent first baseman and merely a good third baseman . . . yet with Youk at third, the Gold Glove-winning Gonzalez at first, and Mike Lowell a pleasant memory, the Sox are a much better team offensively and defensively.
5. Victor Martinez, C. Glad to see he got a cursory vote in the AL MVP race, because the only disappointing aspect about his time with the Red Sox thus far is that he hasn't figured out a way to clone himself.
6. David Ortiz, DH. Is it too much to ask from Papi in 2010 for last year's production (28 homers, 99 RBIs) with a 30-point hike in batting average and more consistency? Given his .866 OPS in the second half, I don't think it is.
7. J.D. Drew, RF. I'm a J.D. convert -- do I need to get Theo to cite his OPS again for you non-believers? -- and I like him even better when he saves his surgeries for the offseason.
8. Jeremy Hermida/Xavier Nady, LF. Obviously, I don't think Bay is coming back, though the odds are probably close to 50-50 and I do hope I'm wrong. It just seems to me that he's going to get five years and $80 million somewhere -- from Arte Moreno, perhaps? -- and the Sox are not going to be willing to make that kind of commitment to a 31-year-old player whose value is primarily tied up in his power. Nady, 30, is an interesting sleeper coming off his elbow injury; he had a .919 OPS for the '08 Pirates before being dealt near midseason to the Yankees. His teammate, some guy named Bay, was at .894 before he too was traded.
9.
STARTING ROTATION
LHP Jon Lester. As untouchable as untouchable gets. Next question.
RHP Josh Beckett. I'm very curious as to what the Sox believe he will be into his early 30s -- remember, there was concern about the condition of his shoulder when they traded for him before the 2006 season, and he does have his share of mysterious injuries. If we start hearing about serious discussions concerning a contract extension, that will be an encouraging hint that they think he will continue to pitch at his borderline-ace level.
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The lesson has been learned. Mark him down for 14-18 mostly aesthetically unpleasing wins.
RHP Rich Harden. I'd rather have Ben Sheets, but I suspect he's heading to Texas. The hard-throwing 27-year-old was relatively healthy last season, making 26 starts for the Cubs (though he pitched just 141 innings), and his strikeout rate (10.9 per nine innings) would have led the NL had he pitched enough innings. That's the kind of guy you take a gamble on.
RHP Tim Wakefield. Until the inevitable injury, then someone from the Bowden/Tazawa/Doubront crew gets a shot. Or would you prefer Paul Byrd, the three-quel? Didn't think so.
BULLPEN
RHP Jonathan Papelbon. A 1.85 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, 38 saves . . . we should all have such a lousy year. Anyway, next winter is when the real trade rumors will begin.
LHP Hideki Okajima. With his 2.72 career ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three seasons, he'd rank high on the list of the most under-appreciated athletes in Boston. Maybe at the top.
RHP Daniel Bard. Obviously the heir to Papelbon, but the 4.74 ERA and .823 OPS-against in the second half suggest he's not quite ready for the closer's throne.
RHP Kiko Calero. A Type B free agent who at age 34 had a sneaky-great season for the Marlins. But this happens only if Manny Delcarmen is dealt -- perhaps to Florida in a package for Cody Ross or Dan Uggla. I tried to come up with another free agent reliever who might appeal to the Sox, but I saw the names Bobby Howry, Chad Fox, Alan Embree, and Brandon Lyon on the list, flashed back to April '03, and two hours later, woke up in a pool of sweat and tears.
RHP Ramon Ramirez: He had his Wasdin moments, giving up seven homers in a bullpen-high 69.2 innings, but with a 2.84 ERA and a 165 adjusted ERA, he was essentially everything the Sox thought they were getting when they swiped him from the Royals for Coco Crisp. His reputation was that he was death on lefties, but he held righthanders to a .623 OPS and one home run in 127 plate appearances.
RHP Takashi Saito. His WHIP the last three seasons: 0.71, 1.19, 1.35. And he'll be 40 in February. On the other hand, he had a 1.08 ERA and a .638 OPS-against in the second half, he wants to be back, and the Sox seem to want him back.
LHP Dustin Richardson. Outstanding strikeout numbers in Double and Triple A last season (97 in 74 innings), but a rarity among lefties in that he lacks decent breaking stuff and his command comes and goes. Have to figure he'll get a crack at a bullpen job unless Lowell is dealt for a lefty. I can't see the Sox signing Mike Gonzalez since he's a Type A.
BENCH
C Jason Varitek. Please, Tito, resist the urge to overplay him. Meaning more than once a week. Twice at the most. No, make it once.
LF Nady/Hermida. Nady has a career .854 OPS against lefties. Hermida has a career .792 OPS against righties. Gary Roenicke had a career .816 OPS against lefties. John Lowenstein had a career .764 OPS against righthanders. Did I mention the MLB Network has been showing the 1979 World Series a lot lately?
SS Jed Lowrie. I know, they want him to play and prove his health at Pawtucket. But Nick Green probably won't be back, the free agent market is pathetic -- I almost talked myself into Bobby "I Think I Broke It" Crosby at this spot -- and if he's healthy, there's probably no more promising option than Lowrie.
INF/OF acquired in a deal for Lowell and/or Delcarmen: Hey, it took me to the 25th man to come up with my first cop-out. That's pretty good for me. There are few free agent options that look like a decent fit -- Nomahhhh!!! No? They apparently have some interest in Rick Ankiel, who is mildly intriguing despite a .672 OPS last season at age 29. And I bet Ryan Kalish has a role with this team -- perhaps a meaningful one -- before the summer breeze is gone. Wouldn't mind a second year of the Rocco Baldelli experience, either.
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